Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Is Intuition Statistics?

 A man is in a bedroom with no windows. He never leaves. Three times a day, a woman enters the room, feeds him, and tells him the weather. After one year, the woman is about to tell him what's going on when he says, "It's raining."

"You're right!" she says, "How did you know?"

The answer is: The neural net. The man may not be aware of it, but he's sensing subtle changes in the barometric pressure along with other indicators that we readily dismiss. Eventually, he can guess with some consistency whether or not it's raining.

This is what you call "knowing without knowing you know" or "knowing without knowing why". It's what we call intuition or our instincts.

Essentially, your brain creates a statistical model of all the times the woman said it was raining and your body sensed the subtle changes in the atmosphere, and this gave you the ability to predict, within a certain degree of accuracy (because false positives will happen) if it was raining.

Food for thought.


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